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World

20. 03. 2020. 18:22   >>  18:22 0

CHINESE EXPERTS

Coronavirus mortality is 1.4 percent

Chinese researchers calculated a 1.4 percent likelihood of dying in the city where the pandemic began. Earlier estimates ranged from 2 percent to 3.4 percent.

The risk of death increased with age, “unlike any previously reported pandemic or seasonal influenza,” the researchers wrote.

While the overall symptomatic case fatality rate was 1.4 percent, for people who were 60 and older it was 2.6 percent. That makes the older age group about five times more likely to die than people with symptoms who were 30 to 59 years old, whose risk of dying was 0.5 percent. For those under 30, it was 0.3 percent.

The researchers noted that their estimates faced some limitations, including that the study would not reflect the many people who were not tested and diagnosed, and that the data might not adequately capture people who were infected in Wuhan and traveled elsewhere. And although their estimated risk of death is lower than previous guesses, the authors make it clear that the virus will undoubtedly leave many casualties in its wake.

The findings “indicate that Covid-19 transmission is difficult to control,” they wrote, adding that “we might expect at least half of the population to be infected, even with aggressive use of community mitigation measures.”

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