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USA 08. 10. 2019.   >>  18:16 0


Economists expect recession next year

The risk of a recession is rising, and the main threat to the economy is the Trump administration’s trade war, according to a survey released Monday by the US National Association for Business Economics.

“The rise in protectionism, pervasive trade policy uncertainty, and slower global growth are considered key downside risks to US economic activity,” said NABE survey chairman Gregory Daco, chief US economist, Oxford Economics.

A small majority of the Washington-based association of business economists also expects that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold through 2019, while 40% of the group saying they expect at least one more rate cut this year.

The results of the survey, conducted the week of Sept. 9-16, come as many analysts see warning signs in the latest US economic indicators, including a plunge in manufacturing activity to more than a 10-year low in September and a sharp slowdown in service-industry growth to levels last seen in 2016. Those reports last week heightened fears the economy may be flirting with a recession.

Four in 5 of the 54 NABE economists surveyed said the economy is at risk of slowing further. In their latest survey, NABE panelists said they expect real gross domestic product will continue to expand at an average rate of 2.3% this year but will slow to 1.8% in 2020.

NABE panelists expect business investment to continue to soften through next year, with real nonresidential fixed investment forecast to rise by 2.9% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020

Panelists put the odds of an outright recession this year at just 7%, with a 24% seeing a recession starting by the middle of 2020. They put the odds of a recession starting by mid-2021 at 69%.

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