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Montenegro

04. 01. 2021. 00:00   >>  16:26 0

FABRIS

Economic growth 4 to 7.5% this year

According to the scenarios of the Central Bank (CBCG), the Montenegrin economy should grow between 4 and 7.5 percent this year, depending on the developments caused by the pandemic, said the vice governor of the supreme monetary institution, Nikola Fabris.

Fabris said that the CBCG has developed two scenarios for this year, depending on the pandemic, which should be accepted conditionally, because the projections are usually based on past experiences, and the pandemic is unique event for which there are no similar experiences.

"At this moment, it is unknown how long the pandemic will last, whether there will be more mass immunizations this year, how effective they will be, as well as what measures will be taken by the countries that are the most important partners of Montenegro. Therefore, these projections, in accordance with the development of events, will be revised during the year ", Fabris said in an interview with the Mina-business agency.

As he explained, the first optimistic scenario of the CBCG is based on the assumption that the coronavirus pandemic will significantly weaken from June this year, as a result of the development of the vaccine, acquired immunity and improved knowledge about life and work in a pandemic.

"Under these assumptions, the projection indicates that the Montenegrin economy could achieve relatively high growth this year of about 7.5 percent, which is largely the result of last year's low base. It should be borne in mind that this is a significantly lower level of gross domestic product (GDP) compared to 2019 ", Fabris said.

The second scenario assumes that the coronavirus pandemic will last this year as well, ie that it will be of similar intensity as last year.

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